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China to have world's 2nd largest carbon trading scheme by 2014

24th January, 2013

China will have the world's second largest carbon trading scheme by 2014, or twice as big as Australia's regime, a latest report showed Thursday.

Carbon price of $29 'not implausible', says Blair Comley

20th January, 2013

THE head of the federal climate change department says it is "not implausible" the European carbon price could rise to $29 a tonne by mid-2015, when Australia's emissions trading scheme begins.


Deutsche Bank Ups Carbon Price Forecast

20th February, 2012

(Reuters) - Deutsche Bank analysts raised their forecast for average European Union carbon prices in the first half of this year by 25 percent on Monday, citing expectations the EU will find a way to reduce an oversupply of carbon permits.

It forecast benchmark EU Allowances (EUAs) to range between 6 and 9 euros a tonne in the first three months of the year, compared with forecast of 5 to 7 euros a tonne it made in late November.

The revision follows repeated analyst downgrades to price estimates since last June. Benchmark EUAs, which plunged to a record low of 6.30 euros a tonne in mid-December, were trading around 7.70 euros on Monday.

The bank revised up its price outlook because it expects an EU committee later this month to vote in favour of carbon permits being withheld from the European Union emissions trading scheme in its third trading period (2013-2020), a bank analyst said.

"There is more hope than before that something will be decided," Deutsche Bank's Isabelle Curien told Reuters.

The European Parliament's industry committee is due to vote on Feb. 28 on a proposal to cut permit supply in the 2013-2020 trading phase, a move that could boost carbon prices.

The Parliament's environment committee voted in support of the measure on Dec. 20, causing EUA prices to surge nearly 30 percent that day.

A full parliamentary ballot is expected around April, although that timing could also change, and then national EU governments must agree to changes before they can become law.

Calls for market intervention come at a time when the scheme is expected to be oversupplied with hundreds of millions of EUAs through 2020, largely because of slowing EU growth prospects and waning demand for carbon permits.

Deutsche Bank raised its accumulated surplus to 663 million EUAs out to 2020 from its previous estimate of 566 million. It also cautioned the surplus could widen further.

The EU cap-and-trade scheme, the 27-nation bloc's main policy to fight global warming, covers around half of the EU's carbon dioxide emissions. It caps emissions on stationary power and industrial plants as well as airlines entering EU airports.

Deutsche Bank said any political action to tighten the ETS cap next year could put EUA prices on track towards 20 to 25 euros a tonne by 2020.

"Absent a credible political narrative developing over the next six to 12 months, however, we think EUA prices will remain below 10 euros/T into 2013 and beyond," the research note said.

The bank revised up its emissions cap estimate for the rest of the phase two (2008-2012) period by 40 million, reflecting recent increased EUA allocations to specific installations in several countries, such as Hungary, Estonia, Italy and the UK.

The adjustment will also have a knock-on effect for the phase three cap, meaning an upward revision of 56 million tonnes over the 2013-2020 period, it said, estimating the ETS cap at 1.72 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2020.